Stocks waver as oil steadies before US Iran talks

Stocks waver on Wall Street as investors weigh the impact of a fragile ceasefire and upcoming U.S.-Iran negotiations, while oil prices hold relatively steady after weeks of volatility.

The S&P 500 edged higher in early trading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped and the Nasdaq Composite posted modest gains. Markets remain sensitive to any developments tied to the Middle East conflict.

Recent gains have been driven by optimism that tensions could ease, but trading remains uneven. The market has recovered most of its losses from March and now sits just below record levels, though volatility persists.

Technology stocks helped stabilize the broader market. Shares of Nvidia and Broadcom advanced, offsetting declines in other sectors.

Oil continues to play a central role in market movements. Prices surged earlier in the conflict as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed dramatically. While prices have eased from recent peaks, they remain elevated compared with prewar levels, keeping pressure on inflation.

Investors are now focused on planned US Iran talks, which could shape the next phase of the conflict. However, uncertainty remains high, with Iranian sources suggesting negotiations could stall if fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continues.

Inflation is already reflecting the impact of higher energy costs. Recent data showed the sharpest price increase in years, driven largely by rising fuel prices. At the same time, consumer sentiment has weakened, with households increasingly concerned about inflation in the months ahead.

The Federal Reserve faces a difficult balancing act. Persistent inflation and elevated oil prices could delay interest rate cuts, and some policymakers have even signaled that rate hikes remain possible if price pressures continue.

Bond markets reflect that uncertainty. Treasury yields have remained relatively stable, suggesting investors expect the Fed to hold rates steady for the foreseeable future.

For now, stocks waver as markets look for clearer signals. The outcome of the upcoming talks, combined with the trajectory of oil prices and inflation, will likely determine whether recent gains can be sustained—or reversed.