NCDs and Mental Health to Cost South America $7.3 Trillion by 2050

Washington D.C., July 15, 2025 – A new report from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) warns that noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and mental health conditions will cost South America more than $7.3 trillion in lost productivity and healthcare expenses between 2020 and 2050.

This figure is equivalent to the entire annual GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean, signaling a massive economic and health emergency that requires immediate action.

“These aren’t just health statistics—they are fiscal alarm bells,” said Dr. Jarbas Barbosa, PAHO Director. “The burden of NCDs and mental health is becoming an economic crisis.”

The Economic Toll of NCDs and Mental Health

The report, titled Major Storm on the Horizon, was developed with support from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. It projects macroeconomic losses across 10 countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.

Key findings include:

  • Up to 4.5% of GDP lost in some countries

  • $3.7 trillion in losses projected for Brazil alone

  • $88 billion in losses projected for Uruguay

These losses stem from premature deaths, long-term disability, and reduced workforce productivity caused by chronic illnesses like cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes, as well as growing mental health issues.

“Health has instrumental value. It’s time to prioritize it,” said Dr. David E. Bloom, lead author of the report and professor at Harvard.

Root Causes: Lifestyle and Systemic Gaps

The sharp rise in NCDs and mental health disorders is driven by:

  • Aging populations

  • Poor diets and sedentary behavior

  • Tobacco and alcohol use

  • Air pollution

Since 2000, the region has seen:

  • 67.5% increase in adult obesity

  • 53.6% rise in diabetes prevalence

  • 24.1% increase in physical inactivity

Over 67% of adults in the Americas are overweight—well above the global average—and the region has the highest rate of physical inactivity worldwide at 35.6%.

Progress Exists, But It’s Not Enough

While deaths from cardiovascular disease and cancer have declined since 2000 due to improved policies, the report urges South American countries to go further in three critical areas:

1. Prevention

Target major risk factors like tobacco, unhealthy diets, and inactivity through regulation and education.

2. Early Diagnosis and Treatment

Strengthen primary care to identify and manage NCDs and mental health issues before they become chronic.

3. Sustainable Financing

Use fiscal tools like taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugary beverages to fund health system reforms and reduce risk exposure.

“Healthy diets and physical activity are medicine against NCDs,” said Dr. Barbosa. “We can prevent up to 40% of cancers and eliminate cervical cancer with timely vaccines and screening.”

Strengthening Systems and Seizing the Moment

PAHO supports expanded access to essential medicines, diagnostics, and integrated care for chronic conditions. However, only 36% of people with hypertension have it under control, and 58% of diabetes patients receive effective treatment.

A key moment for global action will come at the Fourth High-Level Meeting on NCDs and Mental Health during the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025.

“Health is the foundation of development,” said Dr. Barbosa. “We need bold, data-driven policy to build healthier societies. The time to act is now.”