Israel Gaza Strategy: 4 Possible Scenarios as War Drags On

Israel has gained the upper hand militarily across the region. However, it has yet to secure the return of all remaining hostages from Gaza. While Hamas appears significantly weakened, it continues low-level insurgent attacks. Meanwhile, Gaza faces devastation and famine, with ceasefire talks faltering.

So what happens next?

Both Israel and Hamas have presented endgame proposals. However, mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and two U.S. administrations have yet to bridge their differences. Analysts say there are four main scenarios—two diplomatic, two military—each with serious implications.

1. Full Reoccupation of Gaza

Israeli media have reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may soon order a full reoccupation of Gaza. This would mark the first such move since Israel withdrew from the territory two decades ago.

If approved, Israeli forces would enter areas not yet destroyed—roughly 25% of Gaza—where many of the 2 million residents have taken refuge, especially in displacement zones like Muwasi.

Such a move would result in further civilian deaths and mass displacement. It would also risk the lives of the 20 remaining hostages and place Israel in full control of Gaza. International law would then obligate Israel to provide security and meet basic needs.

Despite domestic and global opposition, Netanyahu’s far-right allies support reoccupation. Some even advocate for relocating Gazans and reestablishing Jewish settlements, a position that has drawn fierce condemnation.

2. Ceasefire Based on International Demands

Hamas has offered to release all hostages in exchange for a permanent ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, and the release of Palestinian prisoners. These terms mirror proposals backed by the U.N. Security Council and President Biden’s administration, and they were later endorsed by the Trump administration.

This plan led to a six-week truce in early 2025. During that time, 25 living hostages were freed, along with the remains of eight others. Humanitarian aid surged into Gaza.

However, Israel ended the ceasefire in March, seeking only a temporary truce and partial hostage release. The government fears that a full withdrawal would allow Hamas to regroup and strike again, much like the October 7 attacks in 2023.

Politically, Netanyahu also faces pressure. A full agreement could collapse his coalition and expose him to corruption trials and scrutiny over the 2023 intelligence failures.

3. Ceasefire on Israel’s Terms

Netanyahu insists the war will end only if all hostages return and Hamas is disarmed or exiled. He also promotes “voluntary emigration” to resettle large segments of Gaza’s population abroad—a proposal seen by many as forced expulsion and a violation of international law.

Under this plan, Hamas would trade a few hostages and bodies for a temporary ceasefire, prisoner swaps, aid deliveries, and limited Israeli withdrawals. Talks would then continue, but Israel would require Hamas to disarm.

Hamas says it is open to transferring power to other Palestinian authorities but refuses to disarm while Israeli occupation persists. It also demands guarantees that Israel won’t restart the war, as it did in March.

While Israel could escalate militarily to gain leverage, Hamas has already lost much of its fighting power and leadership. Still, it holds hostages as bargaining chips and maintains a strong martyrdom culture.

4. A Prolonged, Low-Intensity War

The final possibility is a drawn-out conflict. Israel could continue daily strikes, claiming to target militants but often hitting civilians. Meanwhile, Hamas might launch sporadic attacks that kill Israeli soldiers.

In this scenario, famine might be delayed through limited aid corridors, while hostages could remain in captivity for years.

Elections are due in Israel by October 2026. New leadership could change the trajectory, although Netanyahu may push for earlier polls if his coalition holds.

Much will depend on U.S. President Donald Trump. So far, he has given Israel unconditional support and has not pressured Netanyahu publicly. In June, however, he proved his influence by brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Iran after 12 days of war.

When asked recently if he supports Israel reoccupying Gaza, Trump responded, “It’s going to be pretty much up to Israel.”

Conclusion

With Gaza devastated, talks stalled, and hostages still held, each scenario carries immense stakes. Whether the war ends, intensifies, or drags on may ultimately depend on U.S. diplomacy—and whether political will can overcome deep-rooted mistrust.

SOURCE: AP News