2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Calls for Fewer Storms

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to bring below-average tropical activity, largely due to the anticipated development of El Nino conditions.

Forecasters predict fewer storms than usual this year, although officials continue warning that even quieter seasons can still produce devastating hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

NOAA predicts fewer storms for 2026

NOAA said there is a 55% chance the season will be below average.

The agency forecasts:

• 8 to 14 named storms
• 3 to 6 hurricanes
• 1 to 3 major hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger

An average Atlantic season typically produces:

• 14 named storms
• 7 hurricanes
• 3 major hurricanes

The 2025 season produced 13 named storms, slightly below historical averages.

El Nino expected to suppress Atlantic storms

Meteorologists say El Nino is the main reason behind the reduced forecast.

El Nino often weakens hurricane formation in the Atlantic by increasing vertical wind shear, which disrupts storm organization.

Andy Hazelton from the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies explained that stronger upper-level winds across the Atlantic can tear apart developing tropical systems.

At the same time, El Nino usually increases hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific.

Warm ocean waters remain a concern

Despite the quieter outlook, forecasters caution that unusually warm sea surface temperatures could still help powerful hurricanes develop.

NOAA stressed that seasonal forecasts do not predict:

• Exact storm tracks
• Landfall locations
• Individual storm intensity

Officials emphasized that one major hurricane can still make a season catastrophic.

Past quiet seasons still produced destructive hurricanes

Several recent below-average or near-average seasons still caused major destruction across the United States.

Examples include:

• Hurricane Andrew in 1992
• Hurricane Michael in 2018
• Hurricane Ian in 2022

NOAA officials said preparedness remains critical regardless of seasonal totals.

Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, warned that “it only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

Peak hurricane activity arrives in September

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs around Sept. 10.

Historically, most storm activity happens between:

• Mid-August
• Mid-October

Roughly two-thirds of all Atlantic hurricane activity typically occurs between Aug. 20 and Oct. 10.

First storm names for 2026 season

The first tropical storm of the season will be named Arthur.

Other storm names for 2026 include:

• Bertha
• Cristobal
• Dolly
• Edouard
• Fay
• Gonzalo
• Hanna
• Isaias
• Josephine

The naming lists rotate every six years under the supervision of the World Meteorological Organization.

Eastern Pacific forecast expected to be active

While Atlantic activity may slow, NOAA predicts an above-average season in the eastern Pacific.

Forecasters expect:

• 15 to 22 named storms
• 9 to 14 hurricanes
• 5 to 9 major hurricanes

An active Pacific season could increase tropical threats for:

• Hawaii
• The southwestern United States

Additional Pacific moisture could also bring heavier rainfall to drought-prone regions.

NOAA launches new hurricane forecast tools

The National Hurricane Center announced several forecast improvements ahead of the 2026 season.

Updates include:

• Smaller forecast cones with improved accuracy
• A redesigned mobile-friendly hurricanes.gov website
• New drone technology integrated into hurricane models

NOAA said data collected from uncrewed aircraft could improve storm intensity forecasts by roughly 10%.

Researchers partnered with Black Swift Technologies to develop aircraft capable of gathering data inside extreme hurricane conditions.

Experts urge hurricane preparedness despite calmer outlook

Even with forecasts pointing toward reduced Atlantic activity, emergency officials continue urging residents in hurricane-prone regions to prepare early.

Preparedness recommendations include:

• Reviewing evacuation plans
• Building emergency kits
• Monitoring forecasts regularly
• Checking insurance coverage

Forecasters say uncertainty remains high because seasonal conditions can still shift rapidly during the six-month hurricane period.