Wall Street Mixed as Oil Settles and Markets Await Inflation Data

US stock futures were subdued in early Tuesday trading as investors weighed cautious optimism about a potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz against lingering uncertainty about Iran negotiations, while bracing for a week packed with key economic data and major corporate earnings.

Mixed Futures as Oil Pares Gains

S&P 500 futures edged up 0.2% while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4% before the opening bell Tuesday, with Dow Jones futures nudging down 0.1%. Oil prices, which had jumped sharply earlier in the session on fresh concerns about Middle East escalation, pared their gains as diplomatic signals from Qatar improved market sentiment.

Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson said Tuesday that talks between Oman and Iran on the future of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are now at an advanced stage, helping ease some of the oil-driven inflation fears that have weighed on markets since ceasefire talks stalled over the weekend.

Iran Deal Optimism Tempered by Trump’s Comments

Last week’s record-setting rally — which saw the S&P 500 close at 7,736 and the Dow surge past 54,000 — was fueled by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statement that a Hormuz deal could come within hours. That optimism faded over the weekend after Trump told Axios Sunday that the US was “only semi-negotiating” with Iran and wanted Tehran to feel economic pressure.

Brent crude settled up 5% at $87.72 on Monday as the lack of weekend diplomatic progress revived supply disruption fears. Oil stockpiles in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve have dropped to their lowest level since January 1983, adding an additional dimension of energy security concern to the market’s calculus.

Iran Demands Compensation Before Reopening Hormuz

Trump demanded Monday that Iran compensate victims’ families and Middle Eastern countries after Tehran said it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz without compensation for war damage, among other conditions — a new wrinkle in already complex negotiations that analysts say could delay any agreement.

“Everyone has gotten tired of the back and forth,” said Zachary Hill, head of portfolio management at Horizon Investments.

Inflation Data and AI Earnings in Focus

The Wall Street markets oil prices Iran inflation data August 2026 dynamic is set to be tested further this week by a series of major economic releases and corporate earnings. The July Consumer Price Index report — the most closely watched inflation gauge ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting — is due later this week and will help determine whether the Iran war’s oil shock is reigniting broad consumer price pressures.

Cardinal Health, CoreWeave, and Super Micro Computer are among the companies reporting earnings Tuesday, with additional major AI-related firms scheduled through the week. Investors are watching closely for signs that heavy spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure is generating the profit returns needed to justify elevated chip stock valuations.

Best Buy Upgraded as AI Consumer Cycle Begins

Among individual movers, Truist Securities upgraded Best Buy to buy from hold and raised its price target to $95 from $81, citing continued replacement demand, internal improvements, and emerging product cycles driven by AI wearables. “We think the improvement is being driven by continued replacement demand, internal changes and emerging mini-product cycles,” analyst Scot Ciccarelli said.

European markets were modestly positive at midday, while Asian markets closed mixed overnight as traders in the region processed the same Iran-oil-inflation signals weighing on US futures.