GOP Pours Cash Into Once-Safe Republican House Races

Republicans are pouring money into more than three dozen Republican House races once considered safe, after internal polling showed the seats could be vulnerable in the November 3 election.

A widening list of new targets

Since September 1, major Republican groups and megadonors have started spending in at least 39 congressional races where they hadn’t previously deployed money this cycle, according to a Reuters review of spending by leading Republican political groups. Many of the candidates receiving new support sit in GOP strongholds and are still leading in public polls, a sign of rising concern among party leaders that voters could use the election to express dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s policies.

House Republican leaders have warned dozens of campaigns that internal data shows they can’t assume victory, even in districts Trump won by double digits, according to people familiar with the party’s thinking. “Republicans are playing defense in some of the strongholds that they’re used to not having to worry about,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, a partner at Rokk Solutions.

Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 House majority, with one independent caucusing with the party and two vacancies. Democrats need to net at least four seats to take control next year.

A war chest deployed as insurance

Two Republican operatives working with party leaders said the party is using its larger spending power to stifle Democratic attacks before they can gain traction, describing the new spending as “insurance policies” to keep GOP-held districts in Republican hands. “Republicans are deploying our massive war chest to drive voters to the polls and supercharge our candidates,” said Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee. “We’re not taking anything for granted, because, unlike Democrats, Republicans aren’t throwing in the towel on races we can win.”

Republican Rep. Bryan Steil illustrates the shift. His Wisconsin district, which Trump won by about 4.5 points in 2024, is rated “lean Republican” by the Cook Political Report, yet conservative super PACs spent $1.5 million on his race this month, their first investment of the cycle. In North Carolina’s 3rd District, Rep. Gregory Murphy received $131,107 from a conservative PAC last week, the first outside spending on his behalf this cycle, even as Democrats have spent more than $326,000 trying to unseat him in a district Trump won by 14 points and Cook rates “solid Republican.”

Economic strain hits GOP strongholds

The emergency spending reflects mounting economic pressure on traditionally Republican areas, where rising gas, energy and fertilizer costs are hitting the agricultural heartland especially hard. One Republican House campaign aide called the environment in Iowa, Kansas and other Midwest states “dire” as diesel prices climb.

“We’re in this crucial period in the last 30 days where candidates have to really make a case, given how tough the headwinds are,” said Kevin Madden, a former adviser to Mitt Romney now at Penta Group. Campaigns are running as if they’re behind in the polls “even in red districts or traditionally safe” ones, he said.

Republicans hold a spending edge over Democrats

Independent committees have spent more than $1.56 billion on federal elections so far, with about $496 million deployed since Labor Day, according to a Reuters analysis, a figure that excludes spending by dark-money nonprofits that don’t disclose donors. Republicans have reserved at least $888 million in advertising for the coming weeks, compared with at least $666 million for Democrats, according to AdImpact. No Going Back PAC, funded by Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, is leading the surge.

“That’s the advantage of having a shit ton of money,” said one Republican operative working on Trump’s midterm strategy. “We’re not going to let Democrats take free shots on goal.” Over the three weeks through Friday, Republican-leaning super PACs outspent Democrats nearly 2-to-1, spending roughly $309.7 million since Labor Day compared with $174.2 million for Democratic candidates, according to FEC data.

“Republicans have air superiority. House Democrats are scrambling to catch up with the very limited resources they have,” said Mike Marinella of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Democrats see desperation in the spending

Democrats acknowledge their funding disadvantage but argue the GOP’s spending in easy-win districts reveals deeper trouble. “Republicans are running scared, know they’ve lost the American people, and are trying one last hail mary to spend their way out of certain defeat,” said Viet Shelton, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

In one South Texas district Trump won by 18 points in 2024, Republican groups have spent about $2 million on text messages, direct mail and digital ads since September 5 to help Rep. Monica De La Cruz keep her seat, which the Cook Political Report moved from “lean Republican” to “tossup” on Friday. Her campaign manager said De La Cruz is grateful to supporters helping defeat her rival.