Florida Primary Elections Test New GOP Redistricting Map

Florida primary elections take place Tuesday, marking the first vote since the state legislature passed a new congressional map earlier this year that could let Republicans flip up to four seats in November’s midterms and strengthen the GOP’s grip on the House.

A map that reshapes the House math

Analysts say the new map could leave Democrats holding just four congressional districts in Florida after November. The party’s most vulnerable incumbents are Reps. Darren Soto, Jared Moskowitz, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Kathy Castor.

Wasserman Schultz opted to run in the newly redrawn 20th Congressional District, a majority-minority seat. The move has strained her relationship with Black Democrats, who have already been hit hard by Republican-led mid-decade redistricting in states such as Tennessee, Louisiana and Alabama.

Moskowitz is seeking reelection in the newly drawn 25th District, where he faces a spirited primary challenge from progressive Oliver Larkin. The race sets up a competitive general election, since his seat ranks among the top Republican pickup targets.

Castor’s 14th District was redrawn to split Tampa and St. Petersburg, but she still holds a strong chance of keeping her seat in November, given a political climate that currently does not favor Republicans.

A scandal-plagued incumbent under fire

Democrats are targeting Republican Rep. Cory Mills, who has faced an ongoing House ethics investigation and a restraining order issued last year after his former girlfriend accused him of threatening to distribute sexually explicit videos of her. Mills has denied the allegations.

Ahead of the primary in the 7th Congressional District, GOP Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos endorsed Mills’ primary opponent, Ryan Elijah, a former news anchor and NFL sideline reporter.

“We need leaders in Congress who serve with integrity, energy, and an unwavering commitment to the people who sent them there,” Luna and Haridopolos said in a joint social media statement.

The endorsements land as Mills also struggles to raise campaign funds. Despite the scandals, he retains the backing of President Donald Trump.

The governor’s race takes shape

Attention is also on Republican Rep. Byron Donalds, the front-runner in Florida’s GOP gubernatorial primary, who is expected to clinch the nomination. Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited and cannot run again.

Donalds’ campaign has drawn strong Republican support, including Trump’s backing and a $10 million donation from GOP mega-donor Ken Griffin, the largest contribution to his campaign so far.

If Donalds wins the nomination and goes on to win in November, he would become Florida’s first Black governor and the seventh Black governor in U.S. history.

David Jolly, a former Republican who once served in Congress, is the front-runner in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.