Houthi Bab el-Mandeb Blockade Threatens Second Global Trade Chokepoint

Yemen’s Houthi rebels have declared a blockade on Saudi-linked shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening to disrupt a second critical artery for global oil and trade at the same moment that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed — a development that could dramatically widen the Iran war’s economic reach.

What the Houthis Have Declared

The Houthis say they have closed Bab el-Mandeb to vessels connected to Saudi Arabia or traveling to and from its Red Sea ports, in retaliation for the Saudi-led coalition’s blockade on Yemen and an attack on Sanaa’s international airport earlier this month. The rebels claimed to have forced six ships to reroute on Tuesday, though there was no independent confirmation.

Three Houthi officials told the Associated Press — speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to media — that the group has been planning for months how to disrupt shipping through the strait, including the use of naval mines, explosive-laden boats, drones, and helicopter-borne boarding teams. Ships, they said, would first be warned not to cross designated boundaries, with military action following if those warnings are ignored.

Why This Chokepoint Matters

Bab el-Mandeb, at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Roughly 12% of global trade passes through the narrows, including a quarter of all container traffic moving between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal. Its strategic importance has grown significantly since the Iran war severely limited shipping out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.

More than 7 million barrels of petroleum per day transited Bab el-Mandeb in June — up sharply from roughly 4 million before the war, as Saudi Arabia has been routing approximately 4 million barrels daily through its Red Sea port of Yanbu to compensate for Hormuz disruptions.

“If Bab el-Mandeb comes under pressure at the same time as shipping in the Gulf, you have disruption around two of the world’s most important maritime routes at once,” said Clionadh Raleigh, founder of the ACLED conflict monitoring service.

Sporadic Attacks Could Be Enough to Effectively Close the Route

The Houthis Bab el-Mandeb blockade Red Sea shipping threat does not require full physical control of the waterway. The rebels do not control the Yemeni coastline along the strait — that territory belongs to their opponents in Yemen’s civil war — but they hold territory less than 100 kilometers away and have repeatedly demonstrated the capacity to strike commercial vessels with drones and missiles.

Iran’s experience in the Strait of Hormuz showed that even sporadic attacks on ships can effectively close a critical waterway by driving up risks and insurance premiums, deterring commercial vessels from using the route regardless of whether every ship is actually struck.

Saudi Arabia Has Alternatives — But They Are Costly

Saudi Arabia is not without options if Bab el-Mandeb becomes untenable. It could ship up to 2.5 million barrels per day across the Red Sea to Egypt, where the SUMED pipeline can carry oil to the Mediterranean. Another 1 million barrels per day could move through the Suez Canal itself. International shippers could also reroute around the Cape of Good Hope off South Africa — as they did during the Gaza war — but that adds one to two weeks to voyages and significantly raises costs.

Iran’s Strategic Interest in the Escalation

Senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi of the International Crisis Group said the blockade serves Iran’s broader strategic interests at a moment when the US has resumed daily airstrikes against Iranian targets. “From Iran’s perspective, opening additional pressure points across the region gives it more leverage,” Nagi said. “The Houthis provide Tehran with influence over one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.”

Saudi Arabia’s military said it would respond firmly to any Houthi threats against vessels transiting the strait. “All Houthi threats against transiting vessels will be dealt with swiftly and firmly, as such threats are a blatant violation of international law and fall under acts of maritime piracy,” said Major General Turki al-Malki, a Saudi military spokesperson.

The escalation also risks reigniting Yemen’s civil war, which was largely paused under a 2022 truce. The Houthis’ most recent missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport were the most significant confrontation between the two sides in years.

President Donald Trump dismissed the Houthi threat Tuesday. “So far, it hasn’t happened,” he told reporters. “I think that if there is something like that, we’ll just have to take care of business.”