Strait of Hormuz Oil Flow Recovery Could Take Weeks or Months Despite Peace Deal, Experts Warn

A tentative agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz is being viewed as a major step toward stabilizing global energy markets. However, industry analysts and shipping experts caution that restoring normal oil flows could take weeks or even months, even if the ceasefire and deal hold.

The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, typically handles about one-fifth of global crude oil shipments. Its disruption during the war in Iran significantly impacted global supply chains, energy prices, and inflation pressures worldwide.

While oil prices fell on Monday following news of the agreement, the physical and logistical process of resuming normal trade is expected to be slow and complex.

Shipping Bottlenecks and Security Concerns Delay Recovery

Even with the strait reopened, hundreds of oil tankers currently positioned in the Persian Gulf will need to gradually exit through the narrow passage. Industry experts say this cannot happen all at once due to congestion, safety protocols, and shipping lane restrictions.

Many ship operators are expected to proceed cautiously, waiting for clear assurances that the risk of renewed attacks has fully subsided. Maritime insurers and vessel owners are also assessing whether conditions are stable enough to resume regular operations.

Some ships have already begun leaving the region under restricted conditions, while others have avoided standard transit routes altogether amid ongoing uncertainty.

Production Restarted in Phases Across Gulf Producers

Energy producers across the region are also expected to require time before returning to full output. Some countries paused or reduced oil production during the conflict due to storage constraints and disrupted export routes.

Restarting extraction and export operations is a gradual process that depends on infrastructure readiness, storage capacity, and confidence in long-term stability. Countries with alternative export pipelines may recover faster, while others with heavier shutdowns face longer delays.

Analysts estimate that full normalization of production and shipping flows could take several months, with some regions potentially requiring up to a year to fully recover prewar output levels.

Market Uncertainty Persists Despite Falling Oil Prices

Although financial markets initially reacted positively to news of the agreement, experts warn that sentiment alone does not guarantee immediate supply recovery.

Economists emphasize that even if oil shipments resume, inflationary pressures may persist in the short term as energy markets adjust gradually. The lag between geopolitical stabilization and actual supply normalization means consumers are unlikely to see immediate relief in fuel prices.

Some analysts project that global energy flows could return to around 80% of prewar levels by early fall, assuming the agreement holds and no further escalation occurs.

Inflation Impact Expected to Linger

Central bankers and economists also caution that inflation will not decline immediately even if oil supply improves.

Energy costs remain a key driver of price pressures in many major economies, and it will take time for transportation, refining, and distribution systems to fully stabilize.

Temporary government measures introduced to offset energy price spikes may also mask the true pace of recovery in the short term, further delaying the visible impact of improved supply conditions.