Midterm Elections Battle Lines Drawn as Primaries End

As primaries wind down across the country, the midterm elections battle lines are forming, with Democrats and Republicans settling on starkly different messages to win over voters this fall.

A split screen on the campaign trail

In a Michigan swing district north of Detroit, Democratic congressional candidate Christina Hines said voters are far more worried about affording fuel, groceries and healthcare than about left-wing extremism inside her party. “It costs me $73 to fill up our minivan right now,” she said. “This is just not acceptable for working families.”

About 600 miles away, Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is focused on the opposite message in his New York battleground district. He said the Democratic Socialists of America “is going to be a big issue, in part because that’s the platform that Democrats are running on.”

Democrats are working to refocus the race on the economy, where voters say costs remain their top concern even as inflation has eased from its peak under President Joe Biden. Republicans, unwilling or unable to challenge President Donald Trump’s policies, are instead keeping the focus on the Democratic Party’s leftward shift, warning repeatedly about socialism.

Republican strategist David Urban, a Trump ally, acknowledged the message “has limits” and “that’s not going to work everywhere.” He described the war in Iran and its economic fallout as “a mess,” adding, “Right now I think people see the war as a drag on the economy and therefore they don’t like it.” Urban said he isn’t “naive enough” to expect Republicans to keep the House.

Republicans avoid gas prices, target Biden

The Republican National Committee’s talking points this month mention “gasoline” only once across more than a dozen points, according to documents reviewed by The Associated Press, even as the average gas price hit $4.18 last week — the fifth straight week above $4. Instead, the talking points urge Republicans to blame high costs broadly on Biden, arguing “President Trump is fixing what Biden broke.” The word “Democrat” appears 73 times in the same document.

Vice President JD Vance did not address gas prices during a visit to Ohio last week, touching only briefly on affordability. “We got a lot of work to do, but we’re finally seeing that American dream of homeownership become accessible again to our young people,” he said. Vance also did not mention the six-month-old war in Iran, which has directly pushed up gas prices, but he did warn that “if these radicals take control of Congress, they’re going to pass the craziest agenda America has ever seen.”

Democrats grapple with their left flank

Some Democratic officials worry the rise of democratic socialists within the party could hurt candidates in swing districts. At least eight Democratic Socialists of America members or DSA-backed candidates won Democratic nominations this primary season, including seven House candidates and Florida Senate nominee Angie Nixon. No DSA-affiliated candidate won a gubernatorial nomination, after Wisconsin’s Francesca Hong lost her primary this month.

Those candidates represent only a fraction of the 257 seats Democrats currently hold, but the party knows it can’t ignore the issue. Michigan’s Hines declined to endorse two DSA-affiliated House candidates in her state or Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who is not a DSA member but is a vocal ally of independent Sen. Bernie Sanders. Without naming names, Hines criticized party members she views as insufficiently patriotic. “I love my country,” she said. “It drives me crazy when some members of my party, particularly on the far left, don’t act like that.”

Polling suggests the DSA remains largely unfamiliar to voters. A CNN/SSRS poll from July found only about 2 in 10 U.S. adults view the group favorably, while about a third view it unfavorably and the rest have no opinion or haven’t heard of it. About 7 in 10 Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters said they’d feel “enthusiastic” or “okay” about their party nominating a self-described democratic socialist.

Trump’s approval stays weak

Polling consistently shows economic concerns dominate voters’ minds. A Washington Post/Ipsos poll from July found about 6 in 10 registered voters cited the economy or high prices as the most important factor in their midterm vote, compared with about 3 in 10 who cited immigration. Few voters named anti-communism or socialism as a top factor, even though cultural issues have worked as a wedge for Republicans in past races.

Trump’s own standing adds to the Republican Party’s challenge: only about a third of U.S. adults approve of his handling of the presidency, according to AP polling, down slightly from 37% in June. Lawler said he’d welcome a campaign visit from Trump this fall but kept some distance from him. “If he comes back that’s fine, but ultimately this race is going to be decided by my record and my vision,” Lawler said. “It’s going to be an interesting fight to the finish.”