Midwest Primaries Tuesday Test Progressive Energy and Trump’s Pull

Voters in Minnesota and Wisconsin headed to the polls Tuesday in primaries that will test whether the progressive surge that propelled Abdul El-Sayed to a Senate nomination in Michigan last week can repeat in neighboring battleground states — and whether a Trump endorsement still guarantees victory in a Republican primary.

The Ideological Extremes on Both Ballots

The day’s most closely watched contests pit candidates at the outer edges of their parties’ ideological spectrums against more conventional rivals. In Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, democratic socialist state lawmaker Francesca Hong has been leading polls for much of the race, fueled by grassroots energy similar to that which carried El-Sayed. Her main challenger is Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, the first Black man to hold that position, who has run as a pragmatic candidate capable of winning the general election against the Republican incumbent.

In Minnesota’s Republican gubernatorial primary, Trump-endorsed former MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell — who spent years promoting 2020 election conspiracy theories — is facing candidates seen as more electable in November. Trump endorsed Lindell in May, writing on Truth Social that he would be “SPECTACULAR” and could bring Minnesota “back from oblivion.” Lindell stepped down as CEO of his company in early August to campaign full time.

“I believe I’m the only candidate that can win. I not only have the name, but I can raise the most money and I can do the best marketing,” Lindell told Reuters.

Democrats’ Establishment Fears Hong, Republicans Fear Lindell

Party establishments on both sides are worried about their fringe candidates’ general election viability. National Republican groups have spent millions in ads promoting Hong in the Democratic primary — widely seen as an attempt to select an opponent they view as easier to defeat in November against Republican Tom Tiffany, who won his primary last week.

Hong, a 37-year-old chef, state lawmaker, and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, has called for Medicare for All, universal childcare, and free public higher education. She drew a burst of negative attention in recent weeks after old social media posts resurfaced. Despite that turbulence, she has maintained a polling lead throughout the race.

Crowley has repeatedly pointed to the Republican outside spending as evidence that Hong would struggle in a general election. “When Republicans are spending millions to help your opponent win the primary, that should tell you something,” he has said.

Minnesota Senate Primary Also on the Ballot

Tuesday’s Midwest primaries 2026 progressive Trump endorsement Minnesota Wisconsin contests also include a hotly contested Democratic US Senate primary in Minnesota, where Representative Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan are competing for the nomination to fill the seat of retiring Senator Tina Smith. The race has grown increasingly bitter, with millions in outside spending and sharp exchanges over corporate ties and willingness to confront the Trump administration.

Flanagan, backed by Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, has accused “secretive dark money groups and special interests” of working against her campaign. Craig has cast herself as the more electable candidate for a Senate seat Democrats must hold to remain competitive for a majority.

A Pattern Week for Progressive Versus Establishment Contests

The Midwest primaries come one week after El-Sayed’s narrow victory over Stevens in Michigan and follow a broader national pattern in which progressive insurgents have repeatedly outperformed expectations against well-funded establishment opponents. Whether the results in Wisconsin and Minnesota confirm that pattern or represent its outer limit will be one of the defining data points heading into November’s general election.

“What’s interesting about the Upper Midwest is that you get well-developed and articulated left populism, and well-developed and articulated right populism in competition and combat,” said one political analyst, describing the region as uniquely equipped to stress-test both parties’ competing theories of the electorate.