Trump Loses Ground With Independents as Economic Concerns Grow

President Donald Trump is facing a significant erosion of support among independent voters, according to a new analysis of AP-NORC polling data, raising fresh concerns for Republicans as the 2026 midterm elections approach.

The study found that independents have become increasingly dissatisfied with Trump throughout his second term, particularly voters without a college degree — a group that helped fuel his return to the White House in 2024.

The findings suggest that economic frustrations, persistent inflation and rising living costs are reshaping public opinion among some of the voters who were once considered key pillars of Trump’s coalition.

Independent Voters Drift Away From Trump

Researchers at the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research analyzed nearly two dozen polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026 to track changes in public opinion during Trump’s second term.

The data revealed a steady decline in support among independents. Before Trump returned to office, nearly half of independent voters without a college degree viewed him favorably. By the spring of 2026, that figure had fallen to roughly one-quarter.

The shift effectively erased one of the most notable education-based divides among independent voters. While college-educated independents had already been relatively skeptical of Trump, non-college independents experienced a much sharper decline in support once his second term began.

Researchers described the drop as one of the most significant changes observed in the polling analysis.

First 100 Days Trigger Sharp Decline

Much of the decline occurred during Trump’s first 100 days back in office.

Many independent voters supported Trump in 2024 because they believed he would improve economic conditions and reduce inflation. However, polling suggests those expectations have not been met.

Support among non-college independents fell from 48% before Trump’s inauguration to 31% during the first months of his administration. Approval continued to deteriorate throughout 2025 and into 2026, reaching roughly 25%.

Unlike Republicans and Democrats, whose views of Trump have remained relatively stable, independents have continued to adjust their opinions in response to political and economic developments.

Hispanic and Younger Voters Show Growing Discontent

The analysis also indicates that some of Trump’s gains among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups may be fading.

Hispanic independents, who shifted noticeably toward Trump during the 2024 election, have become increasingly critical of the president. Nearly half viewed Trump favorably around Election Day, but approval among this group fell dramatically during his second year in office.

Younger independent voters have also become less supportive, while independents over the age of 60 have remained comparatively stable in their views.

The findings raise questions about whether the demographic gains Trump achieved in 2024 can be sustained through the remainder of his presidency.

Inflation Remains a Major Political Challenge

Economic concerns appear to be driving much of the dissatisfaction.

Inflation was one of the defining issues of the 2024 election, with many independent voters citing rising costs as their primary concern. More than a year into Trump’s second term, those concerns remain unresolved.

High energy prices linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the Iran conflict have continued to pressure household budgets. Grocery bills, fuel costs and everyday expenses remain a source of frustration for many Americans.

Polling shows that roughly eight in ten independents now describe the U.S. economy as poor. Only about three in ten approve of Trump’s handling of economic issues, while approval of his management of the cost of living is even lower.

Warning Signs Ahead of Midterm Elections

The decline among independents presents a potential challenge for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms.

Independent voters now represent one of the largest segments of the American electorate and often play a decisive role in competitive races. Historically, midterm elections frequently serve as a referendum on the party controlling the White House.

While Trump continues to maintain strong support among Republican voters, the AP-NORC analysis suggests that independents remain highly responsive to economic conditions and current events.

If inflation remains elevated and economic concerns persist, Republicans could face increasing difficulty holding together the coalition that delivered Trump a second term in 2024.