Messy Primaries Plague Both Parties as US Midterms Near

With a little more than three months until November’s midterm elections, both major political parties are grappling with self-inflicted wounds and internal divisions that have scrambled their paths to victory and left strategists on both sides uncertain about the outcome.

Two Very Different Game Plans, Both Off Track

Republicans entered the year planning to emphasize border security and economic relief after years of elevated inflation. Democrats intended to make the election a referendum on an unpopular President Donald Trump. Neither strategy has unfolded as planned.

Trump steered the country into an unresolved war with Iran that has disrupted global oil supplies and spiked gas prices at the pump — a direct blow to Republican economic messaging. Meanwhile, his approval rating has fallen to 37%, according to the most recent AP-NORC poll, reflecting deep dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and the war. Rather than pivoting to cost-of-living concerns, Trump has continued bombing Iran, delivered a prime-time speech relitigating the 2020 election, and moved to purge his party of internal dissent.

On the Democratic side, an insurgent progressive wing has successfully ousted incumbent-backed candidates, while several high-profile nominees have imploded in ways that jeopardize seats the party had expected to be competitive.

“We really do not know what’s going to happen in November,” said longtime pollster Frank Luntz.

Democratic Scandals Shake Key Races

The US midterms 2026 primaries Democrats Republicans chaos has been particularly acute in Maine, where Democrats had hoped to unseat five-term Republican Senator Susan Collins. Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and political outsider who rode grassroots energy to the Democratic nomination, dropped out after a sexual assault allegation he denies — leaving the party scrambling. Democrats are holding a convention this weekend to choose a replacement candidate.

Platner’s candidacy had already drawn scrutiny over a tattoo widely recognized as a Nazi symbol and a history of inflammatory social media posts. Supporters had believed he could win back white working-class voters.

In Wisconsin, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez abandoned her gubernatorial bid following a campaign finance scandal just as she appeared to be consolidating the Democratic establishment’s support. Party leaders now worry her exit will boost democratic socialist Francesca Hong, who they view as a potentially weak general election candidate against Republican Representative Tom Tiffany.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake attributed the pattern partly to the political atmosphere Trump has created. “There is something in the air that has made these candidates incredibly reckless and thinking that they can get away with it,” she said.

Michigan Senate Race Exposes Democratic Divisions

The August 4 Michigan Senate primary has become the clearest window into the Democratic Party’s ideological fault lines. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and the party establishment have rallied behind moderate Representative Haley Stevens, while progressive favorite Abdul El-Sayed has drawn enthusiastic grassroots support, a United Auto Workers endorsement, and backing from Senators Bernie Sanders and Chris Van Hollen.

AIPAC and its affiliated groups have spent close to $30 million backing Stevens, in part because El-Sayed has described Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as a genocide. Schumer and other party leaders fear El-Sayed is too far left to win the seat in November against Republican Mike Rogers.

Progressive strategist Adam Green argued that candidates like El-Sayed are proof that “bold, shake-up-the-system economic fighters” are more electable in competitive states than “stale, status quo corporate-aligned Democrats.”

Republicans Navigating Trump’s Influence

Republicans face their own complications. Trump reshaped the Senate map by pressuring incumbents and promoting loyalists. In Texas, he endorsed controversial Attorney General Ken Paxton over longtime Senator John Cornyn — a move Republican leaders warned would put an otherwise safe seat in play and force costly spending. In North Carolina, Senator Thom Tillis declined to run for reelection after feuding with Trump, creating an opening for former Governor Roy Cooper.

“Trump has exacerbated the problem” of a political culture that produces more extreme candidates through closed primaries, said longtime Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

The question Republicans are wrestling with is whether Trump’s ability to generate enthusiasm among his core supporters outweighs his drag on broader general election appeal. “Trump is our biggest ally,” said Democratic pollster Lake. “He’s the best thing Democrats have going.”

Conservative activist Jenny Beth Martin of Tea Party Patriots Action took the opposing view: “President Trump is the single greatest advantage Republicans have in the midterm elections. The energy and enthusiasm he generates is incomparable.”